Obama's Defeat Far From Being A Given
In June of 2008 I stood in the break room at my work with a couple of co-workers speculating who Senator John Mc Cain's Vice Presidential choice would be after he got the Republican nomination. Various names were suggested with good reason: Huckabee, Romney, Thompson, Leibermann. Some people looked askance at me and one even openly laughed when I said, "The only person who is able to deliver a constituency to him he doesn't all ready have is Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska. I am certain she will be the nominee." (We now know this was before Mc Cain had formally interviewed her for the role). A few months later after Mc Cain made the announcement that surprised the media one of these people walked over to my desk and said, "how did you know?" I said, I had no inside information but was a student of history and politics.
There are some things that as a student of history I know to be true. One of those is that President Barak Obama has done so much damage to our country that we can not endure as a great nation if he serves2 terms. His greatest liability in the upcoming 2012 campaign is going to be his record. Despite his nearly abysmal failures in every area and his virtual lame duck status in the world he has a very strong political advantage in the 2012 election -- incumbency. I know what the pundits always say, that incumbency is a disadvantage, because the incumbent has to defend his or her record and this puts the challenger at an advantage. Presidential electoral history tells a different story.
Prior to the Civil War two-term presidents were rare. Only Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and Jackson won re-election. After the Civil War only Hayes, Harrison, Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter and Bush (41) were one termers. Hayes, election was questionable: the electoral delegation of 3 states were questioned. The Republican controlled Congress, with out any legal authority,appointed an electoral commission made up of majority Republicans to elect Hayes. Despite a relatively good record the public resented the political shenanigans that got him in office. Hayes choose not to run for re-election. Harrison lost the general after a challenge for the nomination from his own party. Taft lost due to a third party bid mounted by the former Republican President Theodore Roosevelt, George H. W. Bush faced a third Party challenge from businessman Ross Perot. Ford and Carter both faced challenges from within their own party. Only Hoover was defeated for a second term after an uncontested nomination and only a democratic party opponent. Incumbency gives Obama a very strong advantage.Obama has another advantage.We are at War. No incumbent President has ever lost re-election in a time of war. Since he ordered the air strikes in Libya, he has his own war. Does anyone really think we will be out of their by the 2012 election?
Defeating an incumbent President in time of war is going to be a daunting task. It is going to take more than publicizing his record. The man who promised that unemployment would not go over 8% on his watch has followed an economic plan that has left unemployment at 9.2% and has real unemployment has run at nearly 15%. Through a series of parliamentary maneuverings, high profile deals, and blocking the minority party out of the process, passed an unpopular health care bill. His stimulus bill has expanded government spending more than that of all 43 of his predecessors combined. Leaving the nation in debt to the Chinese and the economy weak. He accused a Boston policeman of racism, without knowing the facts about the case. In the midterm elections his party lost more seats in the house and more state houses than any election since 1928. He has been unable to deliver on his promise to close Guantanamo Bay,or bring troops home from Afghanistan or Iraq. He has been slow to act when natural disasters have happened. He has ignored legal requirements to enforce laws against gay marriage. His conciliatory and appeasing approach to foreign despots and Muslim extremist while shunning of allies have left him a lame duck on the international scene. The Arab street has exploded. Israel no longer trust the US. Despite near complete failure in every area, the American public is reticent to abandon an incumbent President in time of War.
Apart from a challenge with in his own party it will take an exceptional candidate to defeat him. An ideal candidate must be someone who though not connected to the current establishment is an accomplished leader. It will have to be some who has credibility with World leaders, academics and business and professional people. It must be someone with an understanding of history and a belief in American exceptionalism. It must be someone who can do more than disparage Barak Obama. They will need a clear vision for advancing this county and returning it to a place of greatness. They will bave to have respect of leaders from both parties. They will need to have a record of turning a government around. It will take someone who can raise hugh sums of money for their party. I only see one person on the scene who has the potential of beating Obama and that is former Speaker of the House of Representative, Newt Gingrich. His only liability is that their will be some baggage in his personal life the people will have to forgive. Historically Americans have overlooked personal flaws. Grover Cleveland fathered a child out of wedlock. Warren G. Harding, John F.Kennedy and Bill Clinton were known for dalliances. Those things can be overcome.I personally think defeating Obama will be a very difficult task and their is only one combination up to the task: Gingrich/Bachmann 2012.
There are some things that as a student of history I know to be true. One of those is that President Barak Obama has done so much damage to our country that we can not endure as a great nation if he serves2 terms. His greatest liability in the upcoming 2012 campaign is going to be his record. Despite his nearly abysmal failures in every area and his virtual lame duck status in the world he has a very strong political advantage in the 2012 election -- incumbency. I know what the pundits always say, that incumbency is a disadvantage, because the incumbent has to defend his or her record and this puts the challenger at an advantage. Presidential electoral history tells a different story.
Prior to the Civil War two-term presidents were rare. Only Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and Jackson won re-election. After the Civil War only Hayes, Harrison, Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter and Bush (41) were one termers. Hayes, election was questionable: the electoral delegation of 3 states were questioned. The Republican controlled Congress, with out any legal authority,appointed an electoral commission made up of majority Republicans to elect Hayes. Despite a relatively good record the public resented the political shenanigans that got him in office. Hayes choose not to run for re-election. Harrison lost the general after a challenge for the nomination from his own party. Taft lost due to a third party bid mounted by the former Republican President Theodore Roosevelt, George H. W. Bush faced a third Party challenge from businessman Ross Perot. Ford and Carter both faced challenges from within their own party. Only Hoover was defeated for a second term after an uncontested nomination and only a democratic party opponent. Incumbency gives Obama a very strong advantage.Obama has another advantage.We are at War. No incumbent President has ever lost re-election in a time of war. Since he ordered the air strikes in Libya, he has his own war. Does anyone really think we will be out of their by the 2012 election?
Defeating an incumbent President in time of war is going to be a daunting task. It is going to take more than publicizing his record. The man who promised that unemployment would not go over 8% on his watch has followed an economic plan that has left unemployment at 9.2% and has real unemployment has run at nearly 15%. Through a series of parliamentary maneuverings, high profile deals, and blocking the minority party out of the process, passed an unpopular health care bill. His stimulus bill has expanded government spending more than that of all 43 of his predecessors combined. Leaving the nation in debt to the Chinese and the economy weak. He accused a Boston policeman of racism, without knowing the facts about the case. In the midterm elections his party lost more seats in the house and more state houses than any election since 1928. He has been unable to deliver on his promise to close Guantanamo Bay,or bring troops home from Afghanistan or Iraq. He has been slow to act when natural disasters have happened. He has ignored legal requirements to enforce laws against gay marriage. His conciliatory and appeasing approach to foreign despots and Muslim extremist while shunning of allies have left him a lame duck on the international scene. The Arab street has exploded. Israel no longer trust the US. Despite near complete failure in every area, the American public is reticent to abandon an incumbent President in time of War.
Apart from a challenge with in his own party it will take an exceptional candidate to defeat him. An ideal candidate must be someone who though not connected to the current establishment is an accomplished leader. It will have to be some who has credibility with World leaders, academics and business and professional people. It must be someone with an understanding of history and a belief in American exceptionalism. It must be someone who can do more than disparage Barak Obama. They will need a clear vision for advancing this county and returning it to a place of greatness. They will bave to have respect of leaders from both parties. They will need to have a record of turning a government around. It will take someone who can raise hugh sums of money for their party. I only see one person on the scene who has the potential of beating Obama and that is former Speaker of the House of Representative, Newt Gingrich. His only liability is that their will be some baggage in his personal life the people will have to forgive. Historically Americans have overlooked personal flaws. Grover Cleveland fathered a child out of wedlock. Warren G. Harding, John F.Kennedy and Bill Clinton were known for dalliances. Those things can be overcome.I personally think defeating Obama will be a very difficult task and their is only one combination up to the task: Gingrich/Bachmann 2012.
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