My Electoral Last Laugh
Four years ago before there was an Iowa caucus I was openly laughed at by friends at work when I predicted the Republican ticket would be Mc Cain/Palin. This was before Palin had even been considered by Mc Cain. Well it is time for another laughable prediction we will see who gets the last laugh.
I believe the Republican nominee will be Newt Gingrich. Historically defeating an incumbent President is difficult. Since Civil War of the incumbent Presidents who have been defeated only two-- Rutherford B. Hayes, and Herbert Hoover-- have been defeated out right. The others -- Taft, Carter, Ford, Bush-- all faced opposition either from within their own party or a viable third party candidate. The Bully Pulpit and constant news cycle surrounding the White House give the President a formidable advantage.
Barak Obama is vulnerable though because of a terrible record. It will take a certain kind of person to defeat him. It must be more than someone who can point out his failures. It must be someone with who can offer viable solutions and who has record of effective service in business and government. Only Newt Gingrich offers that kind of record. I know there are those who argue that his "baggage" will defeat him.
Baggage has never been an obstacle to Presidential candidates being elected. Americans know and even desire that their President's to be human. In the midst of the Victorian Era when Grover Cleveland admitted fathering a child out of wedlock; it did no damage to his campaign. Warren G. Harding's dalliances failed to prevent him from serving two terms. Kennedy and Clinton were known philanderers. When candidates have admitted their flaws and peccadilloes and taken responsibility for them the electorate has largely ignored them. As a matter of fact it has helped people to identify with them, making them seem human. I think it is actually an advantage to have some baggage. It makes you seem real, transparent. What defeats a candidate is a surprise? Accusations made against of man of reputed impeccable character like a Herman Cain damage them whether they are true or false, because they raise question about the person's integrity. In a case like Newt people know he is flawed. His failures are public. They will not be an obstacle for the nomination or the general election.
I believe the most important consideration for Newt after he gets the nomination will be his VP choice. There are some criteria that person will have to meet. First it will need to be someone who has little or no baggage. It will have to be someone who will be seen as Newt's intellectual equal. It cannot be someone who is perceived as his junior. I believe he or she will have to be able to deliver either a major electoral state, or a group that does not support Newt. I believe Newt is not popular with the Republican establishment because of his close association to President Regan and the tea party. The Republican blue bloods prefer either Romney or Huntsman. ( I do not believe either of those men can get the Republican nomination).
There is only one person who can be Newt's equal in experience and intellectual acumen, deliver a major electoral group, bridge the moderate and Republican blue blood support. He is a long time friend and supporter of Newt, and has an impeccable record, no skeletons in the closet. I believe the likely Vice Presidential nominee for a Newt candidacy will be Jeb Bush. After four years of Obama he would no longer be serving in the shadow of his brother and father. He also offers the advantage of being married to a Mexican-American woman and very popular with the Latino's. This would reach a group Republicans have difficulty reaching because of their position on immigration, and Hispanics, but which they must have; in order, to win this general election.
So here I go again making a prediction that many will find ludicrous. I believe the inevitable Republican ticket in the 2012 race will be Gingrich/Bush. I hear you laughing all ready. Let's see who gets the last laugh.
I believe the Republican nominee will be Newt Gingrich. Historically defeating an incumbent President is difficult. Since Civil War of the incumbent Presidents who have been defeated only two-- Rutherford B. Hayes, and Herbert Hoover-- have been defeated out right. The others -- Taft, Carter, Ford, Bush-- all faced opposition either from within their own party or a viable third party candidate. The Bully Pulpit and constant news cycle surrounding the White House give the President a formidable advantage.
Barak Obama is vulnerable though because of a terrible record. It will take a certain kind of person to defeat him. It must be more than someone who can point out his failures. It must be someone with who can offer viable solutions and who has record of effective service in business and government. Only Newt Gingrich offers that kind of record. I know there are those who argue that his "baggage" will defeat him.
Baggage has never been an obstacle to Presidential candidates being elected. Americans know and even desire that their President's to be human. In the midst of the Victorian Era when Grover Cleveland admitted fathering a child out of wedlock; it did no damage to his campaign. Warren G. Harding's dalliances failed to prevent him from serving two terms. Kennedy and Clinton were known philanderers. When candidates have admitted their flaws and peccadilloes and taken responsibility for them the electorate has largely ignored them. As a matter of fact it has helped people to identify with them, making them seem human. I think it is actually an advantage to have some baggage. It makes you seem real, transparent. What defeats a candidate is a surprise? Accusations made against of man of reputed impeccable character like a Herman Cain damage them whether they are true or false, because they raise question about the person's integrity. In a case like Newt people know he is flawed. His failures are public. They will not be an obstacle for the nomination or the general election.
I believe the most important consideration for Newt after he gets the nomination will be his VP choice. There are some criteria that person will have to meet. First it will need to be someone who has little or no baggage. It will have to be someone who will be seen as Newt's intellectual equal. It cannot be someone who is perceived as his junior. I believe he or she will have to be able to deliver either a major electoral state, or a group that does not support Newt. I believe Newt is not popular with the Republican establishment because of his close association to President Regan and the tea party. The Republican blue bloods prefer either Romney or Huntsman. ( I do not believe either of those men can get the Republican nomination).
There is only one person who can be Newt's equal in experience and intellectual acumen, deliver a major electoral group, bridge the moderate and Republican blue blood support. He is a long time friend and supporter of Newt, and has an impeccable record, no skeletons in the closet. I believe the likely Vice Presidential nominee for a Newt candidacy will be Jeb Bush. After four years of Obama he would no longer be serving in the shadow of his brother and father. He also offers the advantage of being married to a Mexican-American woman and very popular with the Latino's. This would reach a group Republicans have difficulty reaching because of their position on immigration, and Hispanics, but which they must have; in order, to win this general election.
So here I go again making a prediction that many will find ludicrous. I believe the inevitable Republican ticket in the 2012 race will be Gingrich/Bush. I hear you laughing all ready. Let's see who gets the last laugh.
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