A Little Swiftboating Was All Romney Needed
Some people were surprised by the Romney's loss. I predicted it in this blog months ago. Although many pundits said he was only the electable prospect among the Republican field,only Ron Paul would have been a worse nominee. I in no way intend to disparage Romney he is a good patriotic man but his campaign was based on false premises and an ignorance over the way American elections work. There are several reasons Romney lost here are the most important:
First, more than anything else, was his Vice Presidential choice. Once again Ryan is a good and decent man, but he offered nothing to this ticket, and only succeeded in putting it on the defensive. He had few qualifications to succeed to the office of President. He was certainly less qualified than Sarah Palin, and maybe less than Barak Obama. Although he was a sitting member of Congress. He held no leadership position, and had held no previous leadership in the private sector. He did not come from a state that Romney had to have (such as a Mark Rubio, or Jeb Bush either of whom would have been eminently qualified and would have appealed to Hispanics). Although at a tremendous disadvantage by the way it was moderated Ryan had never campaigned on the national scene his inexperience showed in his debate with Joe Biden.
With Ryan in the Vice Presidential slot, his medicare plan became the central feature of the campaign, which put Romney in the position of having to defend the demise of medicare.
Ryan's plan called for phasing out and replacing of medicare over a 10-year period. It was a necessary but radical change, which many in the country feared. Putting Ryan on the ticket enabled the democratic party to continue the mendacious myth that Republicans would end medicare and social security. I understand that medicare as we know it will come to an end. It is fiscally unsustainable. Ryan's plan takes that into account. The problem was that in a modern Presidential campaign that is fought in 30-90 second commercials. The ticket was sold as a threat to medicare. Gingrich was right when he indicated early in the campaign the American public was not going to accept a solution to the entitlement problem that seemed like a radical rejection of the system. Ryan's nomination created a false perception that medicare would come to an end.
2. Romney.s campaign accepted the common Republican premise that you win the base in the primaries, then you forget about them in the general. The democrats have sold the republicans on the idea that elections are won by winning the independents. But if you notice democrats, never focus their campaigns on independent voters. President Obama campaigned to his base the entire election. He talked about taxing, the rich, amnesty for immigrants, abortion, gay rights and health care. He never got off message and his base turned out for him. During the primary Romney campaigned to the base, then in the national campaign he talked about the economy, said very little about social issues,except when he was accused of hating women. In the last few weeks of the campaign Romney emphasized his desire to "reach across the aisle and work with democrats," which wast what the Republican base most feared . They wanted to throw the rascals out. The fact is Romney governed as a moderate in the state of Massachusetts and many conservative Republicans openly worried that as soon as he was elected, he would moderate. The fact that 3 million Republican voters did not go to the poles may indicate that his moderation caused him to lose the election. The fact is you win elections by winning your base and by turning them out.You win elections as Ronald Regan did, as Bill Clinton did and as Barak Obama did by convincing the independents that your vision of America is best for them. The independents will move one way or the other that's why they are called independents. We know the independents opposed Obama care and were angry over the economy. Romney had them. The exit polls show most voted for him. It was losing his base that lost him this election.
3. Romney accepted the myth that you cannot attack President Obama. without looking racist. Romney debated Obama effectively and strongly in the first two debates, but in the last totally ignored his foreign policy failures. I understand the strategy. He had won two, and figured no one won an election on foreign policy issues. Though true, a debate and an election can be lost in a foreign policy debate. Remember John Kerry's comment that he would put the deployment of troops to "a global test." He lost the debate, after winning the prior two, and probably the election on that point. Romney's debate strategy was based on the faulty premise that the media's coverage of the Benghazi attack would put Obama on the defensive. With the exception of Fox News there was little or no coverage of the scandal. Considering that debate moderators had protected Obama in prior debates, There was no reason to assume the media would reveal his foibles leading up to the election.
4. Romney missed an opportunity to look Presidential and to overcome an image problem when hurricane Sandy struck. Remember in 1992 when Hurricane Andrew struck Florida. Bill Clinton went to South Florida,uninvited and coined the famous line "I feel your pain." The Obama camp was attempting to sell the image that Romney was a detached uncaring Rich person. Here was an opportunity for him to go to a crisis, get involved in relief efforts, make a large contribution to a relief agency. He could have pointed out how ineffective Obama's response to this and other disasters were. All Obama did was flew in for a photo op with Chris Christy, made some comments about how great FEMA was doing, then left. Where is the FEMA housing? Where is the Coast Guard or the National Guard? Where is the food and water, or the shelters? Obama's response to this is at least as inept's as Bush's was during Katrina Despite Obama's rhetoric no help has come from the feds. He provided no relief and no leadership for the crisis, as he had also failed to do in gulf oil spill several years before. Romney could have these points and never said a word. Romney missed the perfect opportunity to change the narrative about himself, showing his ability to mobilize resources in times of crisis to help the common man.. You can blame Chris Christy, whom I think betrayed Romney heaping praise on the President's leadership, but who can criticize a governor facing a crisis for welcoming a President and federal help. This one Romney blew all by himself.
5. Romney lost because he failed to understand the difficulty of defeating an incumbent President.prior to the Civil War two-term presidents were rare. Only Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and Jackson won re-election. After the Civil War only Hayes, Harrison, Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter and Bush (41) lost after one term. Hayes, election was questionable: the electoral delegation of 3 states were questioned. The Republican controlled Congress, with out any legal authority,appointed an electoral commission made up of majority Republicans to elect Hayes. Despite a relatively good record the public resented the political shenanigans that got him in office. Hayes choose not to run for re-election. Harrison lost the general after a challenge for the nomination from his own party. Taft lost due to a third party bid mounted by the former Republican President Theodore Roosevelt, George H. W. Bush faced a third Party challenge from businessman Ross Perot. Ford and Carter both faced challenges from within their own party. Only Hoover was defeated for a second term after an uncontested nomination and only a democratic party opponent. Incumbency gave Obama an historically almost insurmountable advantage..Romney needed to take a page out of Franklin Roosevelt's playbook. The way Roosevelt defeated Hoover was by selling the American people on the view that the depression was his fault.In a strange twist Obama has sold the American people on the ruse that the current recession was Bush's fault, and was able to associate Romney with Bush. Romney need to clearly create an image of Obama's mismanagement and failure. He create the same perception of Gingrich in the primaries.
Romney need to do what Mc Cain failed to do. Create in the American people's mind the picture of an inexperienced novice who had lost control. He needed to again raise the issue of Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, remind people of Obama's calling a dedicated policeman racist who was only doing his duty. Although some people complained about the incivility of this campaign, it was far more civil than most in American history. Romney needed to release his Super Pacs to fully swift boat Obama. The American people do not like to change leaders in mid stream. Obama had to be made responsible for the difficulties in the country, and had to beshown to have a philosophy inconsistent with prosperity. Romney's campaign strategy failed to do either.
Ann and Mitt Romney are good and decent people who would have lead this country back to prosperity decency and civility. Unfortunately, the people responsible for Romney's campaign did not serve either him or the American People well. And the next four years with Obama at the helm are going to be abysmal and much of damage will be irreversible. These are not good times for America. I believe the result will be the break up of the Republican party and the creation of a new party built on a conservative agenda, but that will be the next posting.
First, more than anything else, was his Vice Presidential choice. Once again Ryan is a good and decent man, but he offered nothing to this ticket, and only succeeded in putting it on the defensive. He had few qualifications to succeed to the office of President. He was certainly less qualified than Sarah Palin, and maybe less than Barak Obama. Although he was a sitting member of Congress. He held no leadership position, and had held no previous leadership in the private sector. He did not come from a state that Romney had to have (such as a Mark Rubio, or Jeb Bush either of whom would have been eminently qualified and would have appealed to Hispanics). Although at a tremendous disadvantage by the way it was moderated Ryan had never campaigned on the national scene his inexperience showed in his debate with Joe Biden.
With Ryan in the Vice Presidential slot, his medicare plan became the central feature of the campaign, which put Romney in the position of having to defend the demise of medicare.
Ryan's plan called for phasing out and replacing of medicare over a 10-year period. It was a necessary but radical change, which many in the country feared. Putting Ryan on the ticket enabled the democratic party to continue the mendacious myth that Republicans would end medicare and social security. I understand that medicare as we know it will come to an end. It is fiscally unsustainable. Ryan's plan takes that into account. The problem was that in a modern Presidential campaign that is fought in 30-90 second commercials. The ticket was sold as a threat to medicare. Gingrich was right when he indicated early in the campaign the American public was not going to accept a solution to the entitlement problem that seemed like a radical rejection of the system. Ryan's nomination created a false perception that medicare would come to an end.
2. Romney.s campaign accepted the common Republican premise that you win the base in the primaries, then you forget about them in the general. The democrats have sold the republicans on the idea that elections are won by winning the independents. But if you notice democrats, never focus their campaigns on independent voters. President Obama campaigned to his base the entire election. He talked about taxing, the rich, amnesty for immigrants, abortion, gay rights and health care. He never got off message and his base turned out for him. During the primary Romney campaigned to the base, then in the national campaign he talked about the economy, said very little about social issues,except when he was accused of hating women. In the last few weeks of the campaign Romney emphasized his desire to "reach across the aisle and work with democrats," which wast what the Republican base most feared . They wanted to throw the rascals out. The fact is Romney governed as a moderate in the state of Massachusetts and many conservative Republicans openly worried that as soon as he was elected, he would moderate. The fact that 3 million Republican voters did not go to the poles may indicate that his moderation caused him to lose the election. The fact is you win elections by winning your base and by turning them out.You win elections as Ronald Regan did, as Bill Clinton did and as Barak Obama did by convincing the independents that your vision of America is best for them. The independents will move one way or the other that's why they are called independents. We know the independents opposed Obama care and were angry over the economy. Romney had them. The exit polls show most voted for him. It was losing his base that lost him this election.
3. Romney accepted the myth that you cannot attack President Obama. without looking racist. Romney debated Obama effectively and strongly in the first two debates, but in the last totally ignored his foreign policy failures. I understand the strategy. He had won two, and figured no one won an election on foreign policy issues. Though true, a debate and an election can be lost in a foreign policy debate. Remember John Kerry's comment that he would put the deployment of troops to "a global test." He lost the debate, after winning the prior two, and probably the election on that point. Romney's debate strategy was based on the faulty premise that the media's coverage of the Benghazi attack would put Obama on the defensive. With the exception of Fox News there was little or no coverage of the scandal. Considering that debate moderators had protected Obama in prior debates, There was no reason to assume the media would reveal his foibles leading up to the election.
4. Romney missed an opportunity to look Presidential and to overcome an image problem when hurricane Sandy struck. Remember in 1992 when Hurricane Andrew struck Florida. Bill Clinton went to South Florida,uninvited and coined the famous line "I feel your pain." The Obama camp was attempting to sell the image that Romney was a detached uncaring Rich person. Here was an opportunity for him to go to a crisis, get involved in relief efforts, make a large contribution to a relief agency. He could have pointed out how ineffective Obama's response to this and other disasters were. All Obama did was flew in for a photo op with Chris Christy, made some comments about how great FEMA was doing, then left. Where is the FEMA housing? Where is the Coast Guard or the National Guard? Where is the food and water, or the shelters? Obama's response to this is at least as inept's as Bush's was during Katrina Despite Obama's rhetoric no help has come from the feds. He provided no relief and no leadership for the crisis, as he had also failed to do in gulf oil spill several years before. Romney could have these points and never said a word. Romney missed the perfect opportunity to change the narrative about himself, showing his ability to mobilize resources in times of crisis to help the common man.. You can blame Chris Christy, whom I think betrayed Romney heaping praise on the President's leadership, but who can criticize a governor facing a crisis for welcoming a President and federal help. This one Romney blew all by himself.
5. Romney lost because he failed to understand the difficulty of defeating an incumbent President.prior to the Civil War two-term presidents were rare. Only Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and Jackson won re-election. After the Civil War only Hayes, Harrison, Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter and Bush (41) lost after one term. Hayes, election was questionable: the electoral delegation of 3 states were questioned. The Republican controlled Congress, with out any legal authority,appointed an electoral commission made up of majority Republicans to elect Hayes. Despite a relatively good record the public resented the political shenanigans that got him in office. Hayes choose not to run for re-election. Harrison lost the general after a challenge for the nomination from his own party. Taft lost due to a third party bid mounted by the former Republican President Theodore Roosevelt, George H. W. Bush faced a third Party challenge from businessman Ross Perot. Ford and Carter both faced challenges from within their own party. Only Hoover was defeated for a second term after an uncontested nomination and only a democratic party opponent. Incumbency gave Obama an historically almost insurmountable advantage..Romney needed to take a page out of Franklin Roosevelt's playbook. The way Roosevelt defeated Hoover was by selling the American people on the view that the depression was his fault.In a strange twist Obama has sold the American people on the ruse that the current recession was Bush's fault, and was able to associate Romney with Bush. Romney need to clearly create an image of Obama's mismanagement and failure. He create the same perception of Gingrich in the primaries.
Romney need to do what Mc Cain failed to do. Create in the American people's mind the picture of an inexperienced novice who had lost control. He needed to again raise the issue of Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, remind people of Obama's calling a dedicated policeman racist who was only doing his duty. Although some people complained about the incivility of this campaign, it was far more civil than most in American history. Romney needed to release his Super Pacs to fully swift boat Obama. The American people do not like to change leaders in mid stream. Obama had to be made responsible for the difficulties in the country, and had to beshown to have a philosophy inconsistent with prosperity. Romney's campaign strategy failed to do either.
Ann and Mitt Romney are good and decent people who would have lead this country back to prosperity decency and civility. Unfortunately, the people responsible for Romney's campaign did not serve either him or the American People well. And the next four years with Obama at the helm are going to be abysmal and much of damage will be irreversible. These are not good times for America. I believe the result will be the break up of the Republican party and the creation of a new party built on a conservative agenda, but that will be the next posting.
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