Only Kool-Aid Drinkers Believe in a 50% Divorve Rate

Those who died in the People's Temple Cult in Guyana a few years ago drank poison kool-aid because Jones tole them a reality that wasn't true. Many who teach about the family today have drank a poison potion because they have believe what the media has told them about the state of American marriage. If I here another person whine about the state of traditional marriage in America or that we need to adopt new styles of marriages or try to make those people in traditional marriages feel guilty about their marital difficulties by claiming the divorce rate is 50% and the home is in crisis I am going to do something rash. I wrote my doctoral project on divorce recovery and my research establish that traditional marriage are more popular and stronger than ever. Here is an excerpt:

Many people both inside and outside the Christian community are predicting the demise of the family. In Hollywood vs. America, Michael Medved, a movie critic, demonstrates that over the last 25 years many in the movie industry have quoted an erroneous statistic to promote alternatives to traditional marriage and family.[1]  Far from advocating a conspiracy theory, he explains that when a statistic was published that gave credence to their fallacious worldview, many media moguls promulgated it without really examining its accuracy.

            According to Medved, the National Center for Health issued a report in the early 1980s, stating that the divorce rate in the United States had reached 50 percent. The center came to this conclusion by comparing the number of divorces that year to the number of marriages the same year, which they reported were nearly half.. The problem with the statistic (besides the fact that it is not a reality in virtually anyone’s experience) is that a couple married in a given year is a different population group from those divorced the very same year.[2] Couples divorced in any given year were married over a number of years. The combined total of couples married during the years when each divorced person in the group was married represents a much larger statistical population than those married the same year that the divorces took place. There is no one-to-one correspondence between those married any year and those divorced the same year. 

            The market researcher George Barna says that arguing a 50 percent divorce rate from this kind of statistical analysis is specious:

…[C]areful thinking shows this makes no sense. It’s like claiming that half of all adults are overweight and one quarter of all adults eat pizza everyday, therefore, half or all overweight adults must eat pizza everyday. The fallacy in the argument is we are combining behavioral data for two entirely different groups of people. The people who get married and get divorced this year are, for the most part, different [groups of] people. It is not possible to claim that half of all marriages end in divorce simply because this year we had two times as many people get married as got divorced.[3]

                                                                             Medved argues that Hollywood and many in the news media have quoted this statistic so much that the idea of a 50 percent divorce rate has become nearly universally accepted:

 The problem with this argument (aside from the inherent dangers of self-fulfilling prophecies) is that it is based on incorrect assumptions and ignores all available data [italics mine]—including straightforward statistics that show that the commonly accepted figure about the divorce rate is profoundly misleading. [See Appendix One, which compares first marriages to divorces from 1929–1989.] The notion that every marriage has a fifty-percent chance of failure is so pervasive that even well intentioned and thoughtful observers seldom bother to question it. [4]

People have used this statistic to assail and assault traditional marriage at every turn. Homosexuals and others use it to defend the need for alternative lifestyles. Medved says that in many modern movies, “marriage is [portrayed as] an institution that is outmoded, oppressive and frequently dangerous.”[5] He gives a litany of examples to support his rather broad generalization.[6]  Adultery, abuse, and abandonment are often depicted as normal; and alternatives to lifelong heterosexual marriages are advocated as gratifying, fulfilling, and practical. Hollywood, in Medved’s view, has gone to war against the traditional family, and has used this specious statistic to reshape culture.

           

            Unfortunately, many in the church have adopted this rather hopeless view of marriage. Jim Killian, in “Don’t Believe the Divorce Statistics,”[7] argues that the church has accepted this cultural myth and sometimes tries to use guilt as a motivation for marital enrichment. Guilt is seldom motivating; it often adds a sense of defeat to those struggling in their marriages. Should we really be surprised when Christian people rationalize along these lines: if 50 percent of marriages end in divorce anyway, perhaps divorce is worth considering? The fact is, the divorce rate is much lower, and the Christian theology of marriage provides a healthy foundation for a happy home. Medved argues that marriages in America are in fact healthier and happier than ever.[8]

The Conditions of Marriage in America

           

Killian, Barna and Medved have shown that the 50 percent divorce rate is a myth. According to Larry Wood, marriages actually exceed divorces two to one. Graphing Census Bureau marriage statistics from 1940 to 2000, he shows a dramatic increase in marriages in the mid 1940s to 1950s. (In the past this was due to soldiers returning from World War II to marry their sweethearts.) This was followed by a dramatic decline in marriages from the 1950s to the 1960s. Following the 1960s, there has been a steady increase in marriages until the year 2000. The number of divorces, while much smaller than marriages, have followed a similar pattern of increase over the same period.

            In 1940, there were 2.4 million marriages in the United States; the same year, there were only 200,000 divorces. Divorces peaked dramatically beginning in 1965, but they plateaued by the 1980s. By the 2000 census, there were 2.4 million people married as compared to 1.4 million divorced.[9] When we observe Census Bureau statistics, we notice there have never been half as many divorces as marriages.

            Probably the most accurate way to compare divorce to marriages is by comparing living people who have ever been married to living people who have ever been divorced.

According to Medved, two-thirds of all Americans above the age of eighteen are currently married, and among those who are unmarried, some 80 percent plan on wedlock for their future. This means that more than 90 percent of the nation’s adults are either married at the moment, or expecting marriage at some point in the years ahead.[10] Only 10 percent of ever-married men and 13 percent of ever-married women had been divorced at the time of the publication of Medved’s Hollywood vs. America.[11]  He continues to explain that between 1981 and 1987, the number of marriages increased by three percent, while divorces declined by five percent. During the same period, he says, “The divorce rate per 1,000 population and divorce rate per 1,000 married women eighteen years and older dropped for the third consecutive year.”[12] While the United States has one of the highest rates of divorce in the world,[13] heterosexual marriage is still the norm for most people in our country.

           

            Arthur Norton and Louisa Miller authored a longitudinal study of marriage and divorce for the U.S. Commerce Department following the 2,000 census.[14] They found that remarkable changes in family structure over the past several decades have made it difficult to draw firm conclusions about divorce and remarriage trends. They did, however, make some interesting observations:

 Beginning in the latter half of the 1960’s [sic] the first marriage rate began to fall and the divorce rate began to rise…. During the late 1960’s [sic] and 1980’s [sic] the divorce rate doubled…. [It] remained relatively unchanged during the 1980’s [sic] exhibiting a small drop toward the end of the decade.… For age groups under 35 between 1975 and 1980 there was a large increase in the percent who had divorced, but only one significant increase occurred between 1980 and 1985 or 1985 and 1990. In fact, for the latter period there is an indication of a drop in the percent who  divorced. [Italics mine].[15]

Their research confirmed that the trend towards a declining divorce rate appears to be generational. Marriages tended to last longer and divorces occur less frequently for those married between the ages of 25 and 29 in the 1980s than for those married people between the ages 30 and 34 and above in the 1980s. According to Norton and Miller, divorce among the so-called “generation X” tends to be on a sharp decline indeed:

Women born during the early and middle baby-boom years are likely to have higher eventual percents [of divorces after first marriages] than their predecessor or successors. Divorce prospects for younger women may be even lower than the lowest rates shown in … projections.

Although declining among the younger generation, at current trends, the United States will continue to have one of highest rates of divorce in the world for at least the next couple of decades. According to this study about 4 out of 10 first marriages may end in divorce.[16]

            However, the study only looked at data concerning women; it lacked an evaluation of the state of marriage among men. Medved compared men’s and women’s marriage and divorce rates and found an even more hopeful conclusion. Further, Norton and Miller are clear that one reason why divorce is declining is fewer people are marrying; more people are opting for alternative life styles[17] or simply remaining single for the duration of their lives.[18] It is yet to be seen whether the trends indicated in this study will continue, and whether that will bode well for the traditional biblical family.

The State of Christian Marriages

Marriage, though clearly under assault may be stronger than we have assumed the last few years, but it may be a different matter in the church. George Barna, an evangelical market researcher, has indicated that the Christian home is in no better condition, and may be worse than the secular. He says that while evangelicals represent about 12 percent of the population, they also represent about 16 percent of the divorced population.[19]  His research shows that about 1 in 4 marriages end in divorce. His research need not be interpreted pessimistically. Divorce has been around as long as the family, and there have been cultures that survived with high divorce rates. Divorce is not an indication of the failure of marriage, but of the hardness of humanity’s heart.

             Barna’s work draws some very positive conclusions about religion in the life of a married couple. Those who viewed religion as very important are more likely to be satisfied in marriage than those who do not. He says that those individuals more involved in corporate religious behavior are more satisfied in their marriages.[20] He does not, however, compare divorce rates among the different generations. Although divorce is far more common in the church than ever and its frequency is rising, where a couple holds a common vibrant faith in Jesus Christ, and are committed to growth in him, marriages are strong indeed.

            Those of us who teach and preach would do well to warn our congregations of the growing problem of divorce in America and the church, to offer some teaching to those who are married to unbelievers on how to live with an unbeliever (cf. 1 Peter 3: 1–7). We would do well to encourage premarital counseling and divorce recovery support. However, let us offer Christian couples hope that when they marry and place Christ first, they have a very good chance for a successful and vital marriage. Let’s get away from promulgating the specious idea that more than 50 percent of Christian marriages end in divorce; rather, let’s begin teaching that the best way to establish a healthy home is on biblical principles.

            We established in the previous chapter that the gospel offers the hope of restoration for those who may have failed in marriage. The early church clearly disciplined those who divorced for unbiblical reasons, yet whatever discipline the church applied, there was always a process for the penitent to be restored.[21] Why should divorce be an unforgivable sin from which one can never be restored? Regardless of the grounds, divorce can be forgiven, and the divorced can be restored to service at some level.

Divorce is no unique category of sin that permanently creates a second-class Christian or ostracizes one from service to the Lord. While divorce is forgivable, however, it may have permanent consequences.

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[1] Michael Medved, Hollywood vs. America: Popular Culture and the War on Traditional Values, Harper Collins, New York, copyrighted by Michael Medved, 1992, pg132- 135.

[2] ibid, see footnote, pg. 134

[3] George Barna, The Future of the American Family, Moody Press, Chicago, copyright 1993 by George Barna. pg. 68

[4] ibid. 132

[5] ibid. 122

[6] ibid.,122 - 126

[7] Jim Killian, “Don’t Believe the Divorce Statistics,” 132

[8] Michael Medved, Hollywood vs. America, pg. 135

[9] Larry Wood, “Marriage Statistics: Latest Statistics from the United States Census Bureau,” Bible Doctrine News: Grace Oriented Divine Viewpoint of Current Events www.biblenews1.com/marriage/marriags.htm, accessed July 2, 2004

[10] Michael Medved, Hollywood vs. America: Popular Culture and the War on Traditional Values, pg. 128 & 129

[11] ibid, 133

[12] ibid., 135

[13] Divorce Magazine.com, copyright (c) 1996-2003 Segue Esprit Inc. from http://www.divorcemag.com/statistics/statsWorld.shtml accessed July 31, 2003

[14] Arthur J. Norton and Louisa F. Miller, “Marriage Divorce and Remarriage in the 1990’s,”

Current Population Report: U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington. D.C., 2002, pp 1 - 5

[15] Arthur J. Norton and Louisa F. Miller, “Marriage Divorce and Remarriage in the 1990’s pp 3- 5.

[16] ibid., pg 5

[17] It seems to this author that this alternative lifestyle offer a more serious threat to the family than does divorce.

[18] ibid., pg 12

[19] George Barna, The Future of the American Family pg 53

[20] ibid, pg. 56

[21] J.E. Riddle, M.A., A Manual of Christian Antquities; or, an Account of the Constitution, Ministers, Worship, Discipline, and Customs of the Ancient Church, Particularly during the Third, Fourth and Fifth Centuries, to which is Prefixed an analysis of the Writings of the Ante-Nicene Fathers. Compiled from the works of Augusti and Other Sources, John W. Parker, West Strand, London, 1839, pg. 595 – 596.