Ryancare Defeat A Definite Win for Trump: Establishment Hoisted on Their Own Petard

Many of my friends and family sent me frustrated and even panicked messages Friday after Speaker Paul Ryan pulled the American Health Care Act without a vote. Many people thought it was over Trump had lost; Trump had been defeated. I had gone to bed Thursday night feeling the same way, but as I slept on it, I awakened Friday with a certainty that the American Health Care Act would die. I am not the profit or the son of a profit, just a student of American history and usually a pretty good judge of where the political winds are blowing.  When I heard in the afternoon that the bill had been pulled from the floor I had one of those moments: Trump was not the loser at all in this; he is the winner. Once again Trump has defeated the establishment and they are at a loss to explain what happened.

Not to worry: Trump is the winner in Friday's  American Health Care Act failure. Both the Conservative and establishment factions of the Republican Party did everything they could to stop Trump right up to election day, and they have been working for his downfall ever since. John Mc Cain passed a bogus dossier full of vicious lies to the FBI. The FBI can find a Superbowl quarterback's missing jersey in Mexico, can uncover hidden material on Anthony Weiner's computer: can identify Hillary Clinton's careless use of a private server for State Department business, but expect us to believe they do not know who leaked Michael Flynn's name to the press. In 2010 the Republican Party gained control of the House with a promise to repeal Obamacare. In 2012 the fielded a candidate for President, who as Governor of Massachusetts had been the architect of the bills precursor. They lost. In 2014 they won both Houses on a promise to repeal Obamacare. In 2015 they put a repeal Bill on the President's desk, which he vetoed. On 60 occasions the House passed  Obamacare repeal legislation. In comes Donald Trump, the bellicose, belligerent buffoon. None of the Republican candidates took him seriously until he won the Florida primary, sending the fair-haired establishment darling, Marco Rubio, back to Florida. The establishment was left with two candidates, that they loved to hate, Trump and Cruz (Had Cruz won; he would have had it no easier). Yet Cruz lost his credibility with many conservatives when he voted for the Corker Amendment to the appropriations Bill for the Iran deal. The voters wanted someone who was down for the struggle, and he apparently was not, at least in the minds of some.

The reason the American people chose Trump was they knew he was willing to fight. The establishment Republicans ever protective of the status quo, and preferring a progressive big government, would have even preferred Hillary to being in the majority with this guy.  That was evident in Paul Ryan's statement Friday, "When you go from being a minority party to being a majority there are growing pains." A ludicrous statement: They have been the majority party in the Congress for all but 2 of the past twelve years. The fact is the AHCA was designed to fail and embarrass Trump, but Trump knew that. Trump has turned the tables on them.  During the transition the Republican establishment all  showed up at Trump Tower to patronize Trump and the voters.  Even Mitt Romney provided  a sycophantic kiss on the lips. All the while they still considered Trump to be the buffoon.  While some Conservatives were willing to make the best of what they saw as a bad situation. The establishment thought they need to manage Trump -- damage control. Over and over again and
underlying theme has run through the Republican establishment. How can we put the best face on this to minimize the damage and reduce our losses in 2018, and still have a shot at 2020 (after all, this guy will fail and never get re-elected.)

So we all watched Trump and Melania tour Washington during the transition. There were Mitch and Paul, the faithful older brothers welcoming their (not so appreciated, adopted, not-so-bright) sibling to the college every generations of this family had attended on freshman orientation day. "Stick with us Don. We'll show you the ropes." They had their meetings. They planed their strategy to get the imbecile through the fraternity pledge, doubting he would make it through the first semester; they speak patronizingly to him. "Let us show you how to get through pledge week, Don." So Don, says, " Thamnks guys. I could not do this witout your help. I know you guys have my best interest a heart. (All the while he knew what they were planning, but he had no choice. Can you imagine what would have happened if he had tried to make them do it his way?) And we know how important this fraternity thing is to the family legacy. You guys tell me how to make this pledge I'll do it." They were the guys with the experience. He had won, yes, but he had lost the popular vote.

Mitch and Paul understood that while the people had voted for Hillary Clinton, Trump had won on a technicality. That was their proof. They interpreted the elections result to be a message that while the people were tired of the weak economy and week national security of the Obama years. They really did like Obamacare. Mitch and Paul the sagacious, experienced older brothers knew how to navigate these waters. They would repair rather than replace Obamacare. Their strategy -- AHCA. (Brilliant: keep Obamacare, but make the American people think you repealed it. If they stupid enough to elect this guy, they were too dumb to know the difference). This would get little brother into the fraternity, even though none of the brothers want him. No one wanted the embarrassment of seeing him fail . Alas Don was no fraternity guy. Most of the people who elected him could not even pronounce the Greek letters. There were even some of his supporters on campus who had little use for the fraternity antics. The simple way to deal with that was simply to hide the reality of the plan from the non-frat guys. They were two stupid to recognize that they were being duped. Once Don got in the fraternity they would be in control and would be able to manage his shenanigans. All the while Don was in control. The establishment would be hoisted on their own petard.

Then comes pledge day. Don gives it all he's got. That no one can deny.  The brothers get together. No one really wants Don, but they are stuck with him. Mitch and Don go to the fraternity they explain that no one really wants this guy, but they have to respect the image this family has had for generations. We are the civil, the thoughtful, the careful leaders. Little brother Don has done every thing we've asked. He has passed all the initiation rites, but what they fail to see is that he is playing them. The strategy fails to get the votes. They cancel pledge week. They don't  have the votes. Mitch and Paul are embarrassed; the fraternity flounders. Don goes to class the next week, and the President goes back to work. The establishment fraternity is in shambles. Trump can move forward  with his own legislative strategy now. Paul Mitch and the guys will be coming to him asking him to join. In 2018 no one on either side wants to run on Obamacare. President Trump will now control how and when it is repealed and replaced.

What we witnessed Friday in the slap down of Ryan care was the collapse of the Republican establishment, orchestrated masterfully by the adopted younger brother, President Trump. Yes, I believe Trump knew exactly where this was going the first day he met with Paul Ryan. At that point in time Trump had no other cards to play. What do we think would have been the reaction if the first time Trump had met with Ryan or Mc Connell about healthcare he had resisted their plan? They would have gone to microphones and explained that the President was inexperience in all things political. He did not understand things like the 60 voter rule that Mitch Mc Connel invoked every time the Senate takes a bathroom break. Trump was never asked for a plan. After he won Mc Connel and Ryan welcomed him to Washington. Remember the pictures of them standing together in the Capital building gazing across the mall. No one really thinks those pictures were about Trump. Those pictures were to reassure the establishment, "We have this guy under control." Had Trump resisted at that point he would have had a fight, so Trump went along (and yes, I believe he knew it was at best a long shot.)

Trump entered the White House on January 20 knowing the establishment (both parties) wanted him to fail. Remember Ryan had only acrimony for Trump until 2am November 9th. Trump may have forgiven that, but he most certainly has not forgotten. If you think Trump has suddenly forgotten his supporters, you have forgotten about Mitt Romney. Remember the steak dinner. When Romney came to join the team. Romney who had called Trump corrupt. Had sought to use a third party candidate to defeat Trump. The guy who came out of Trump tower and who suddenly said he had changed his mind, and offered a non-apology apology. Romney destroyed all of his credibility. The person who was left standing after the game was Trump. We saw it again Friday.

For weeks Ryan had told the Conservative media that his plan (the one that he would let no one see) would repeal Obamacare and take us to a free market. Those who were the strongest advocate of free market health care praised Ryans claim, and said, "Show us the plan so we can go back to our constituencies and get the support it needs. "Can't do that," said Ryan. "We have to control the message." So then Ryan releases the bill. Nothing he promises is in the bill. Conservative Senators make it clear it will be dead on arrival there. So Trump invites them all over for bowling and pizza at the Executive Office Building (at least Romney got dinner at a fancy New York city restaurant). Trump bowls better that anyone expected. Ryan goes to work selling the bill, Trump gets behind him. He had no choice really. Does anyone believe that he could have said no at that point?

Imagine the scenario: "Listen Paul, Mike and I have talked this over. This really isn't what we promised, and you don't have the votes." Ryan would have said, "Mr President, you are the business man and the negotiator; Mike, he's just ,humbled and proud, that the American people have given him, just a small town boy from Indiana,  the privilege of being the 48th Vice President of the United States.' With all due respect Mr. President Mitch and I we've been around this town a long time we no how to navigate the complexities of Washington. We will present the bill and you can come use your great negotiating skills to get those recalcitrant Freedom Caucus people on board." (Ryan and Mc Connell think they have played him.) Trump just smiled has another slice of pizza and bowls another frame.

So over the next two weeks, it's full court press. Ryan is everywhere. Trump goes on the road. It comes time for the vote, and they are not there. Trump praises Ryan but leaves the door open for round two. Who is the loser here, not Trump. Ryan comes out and admits that the Republican leadership is incapable of getting  enough votes to repeal Obamacare because they are now in the majority, when they have all ready done it several times when they were in the minority. How can Ryan survive this? He has no plan, the democrats have no solution. The only one in the game who is holding any cards is Donald Trump. They thought Trump was the buffoon. They thought they would have the plan that would put him in his place; instead Trump now rules the place.

For most of last week I wavered between thinking Trump had fallen for Ryan's  scheme and Mc Connell;s ploy. I hate to admit but Thursday when Trump seemed to be all in I thought for a moment he had decided to settle for what he could get, then cut his losses. But when bill was pulled without a vote Friday, I knew that Trump had understood where this was going. Then it struck me. Trump has been driving this train since he came down that escalator in June of 2015. He knows who his enemies are and who his friends are. Every thing Trump does is calculated to win, even when he loses. This is what the establishment fails to see. This is why they were hoisted on their own petard.